| 翻訳と辞書 |
Twin crises
Twin crises is term in economics that refers to a simultaneous crises in banking and currency (also called a balance of payments crisis). The term was introduced in the late 1990s by economists Graciela Kaminsky and Carmen Reinhart,〔Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Carmen M. Reinhart (1999). “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems.” American Economic Review, Vol. 89 No. 3, 473–500.〕 after the occurrence of several episodes with this characteristic around the globe.
==Relationship between banking and currency crises==
The wave of twin crises in the 1990s, which started with the 1994 Mexican crisis, also known as the "Tequila crisis", and followed with the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis, gave rise to a huge discussion on the relations between banking and currency crises. And although the literature on financial crises provided several theoretical Economic models that tried to understand the linkages between these two types of crises, the causality direction was not unambiguous. While one research stream argued that currency crises could cause banking crises,〔Stoker, James (1994). “Intermediation and the Business Cycle Under a Specie Standard: The Role of the Gold Standard in English Financial Crises, 1790–1850.” Mimeo, University of Chicago.〕〔Mishkin, Frederic S. (1996) “Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective,” in Michael Bruno and Boris Pleskovic, eds., Annual World Bank conference on development economics. Washington DC: World Bank.〕 another stream argued that banking-sector problems could cause currency crises,〔Velasco, Andres (1987). “Financial Crises and Balance of Payments Crises: A Simple Model of the Southern Cone Experience.” Journal of Development Economics, 27 (1–2), pp. 263–83.〕〔Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos F. (1985) “Good-Bye Financial Repression, Hello Financial Crash.” Journal of Development Economics, 19 (1–2), pp. 1–24.〕 Moreover, there was yet a third stream of researchers that defended the idea that there would not be a causality relation between banking and currency crises, arguing that both types of crises would be caused by common factors.〔McKinnon, Ronald I. and Pill, Huw (1996). “Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The ‘Overborrowing Syndrome’, ” in Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, eds., Financial deregulation and integration in East Asia. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 7–42.〕〔Goldfajn, I. and R. Valdes. (1997). Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity. IMF working paper no. 97/87.〕〔Glick, Reuven, and Michael Hutchison (1999). "Banking and currency crises: how common are twins?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.〕
To address this ambiguity in the theory, Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) 〔 conducted an extensive empirical work for 20 countries over a 25-year sample and found that banking-sector problems not only are generally followed by a currency crisis, but also help to predict them. A currency crisis, on the other hand, does not help to predict the beginning of a banking crisis, but does help to predict the peak of a banking crisis. That is, although it doesn't cause the beginning of a banking crisis, a Balance-of-Payment crisis may help to deepen an existing banking crisis, creating thus a "vicious cycle". This result is supported by Goldstein (2005),〔Goldstein, Itay. 2005, “Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises”, Economic Journal, 115, pp. 368–90.〕 who found that with the existence of strategic complementarities between speculators and creditors in the model, an increase in the probability of one type of crisis generates an increase in the probability of the other type. This "vicious cycle" would be responsible for the severity of twin crises if compared to single crises, resulting in much higher fiscal costs 〔Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo (2001). “On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises.” NBER Working Paper No. 8277.〕 for the affected economy.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
■ウィキペディアで「Twin crises」の詳細全文を読む
スポンサード リンク
| 翻訳と辞書 : 翻訳のためのインターネットリソース |
Copyright(C) kotoba.ne.jp 1997-2016. All Rights Reserved.
|
|